The U.S. dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions, which themselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth, especially influencing the fortunes of emerging and developing economies (EMDEs).

2022年9月7日 · The paper—The Global Dollar Cycle—uses a statistical model tracking variables across 26 EMDEs to document how dollar-appreciation shocks lead to economic downturns, a feature of the world ...

2023年3月29日 · This column presents empirical findings on the drivers of dollar shocks and their effects on expected economic activity and asset prices in EMDEs. The authors also document their continuing relevance in the most recent phase of the global dollar cycle

We develop a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the international demand for safe dollar assets.

5 天之前 · The US dollar is on the move. Since September 2024, the US dollar has, on average, gained 6.7% against the euro, 5.5% against the British pound, and 8.6% against the South Korean won. 9 Among emerging markets, the dollar has strengthened most during this period against the Indonesian rupiah (6.7%), the South African …

We develop a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the international demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world, and the dollar as a global risk ...

2024年12月7日 · Since the 1971 end of the gold standard, the dollar’s cycles have been notably prolonged and distinct, marked by clear fluctuations between periods of strength and weakness. Today, a new set of structural pressures has brought the USD to a critical juncture.

2023年3月6日 · The U.S. dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions, which themselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth, especially influencing the fortunes of emerging and developing economies (EMDEs).

2024年10月14日 · There is a well-documented link between the strength of the dollar and financial conditions worldwide – the global financial cycle. In the upward phase of the cycle, risky assets appreciate and credit conditions ease, while the dollar tends to depreciate.

2025年3月26日 · 2.1.1 Dollar shocks and the global financial cycle and its spillover effect on emerging economies. As the world’s most important financing, reserve, pricing, and anchoring currency, the fluctuation of the US dollar is closely related to global financial conditions.