The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.

2025年2月18日 · A black swan event is a high-impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but that in retrospect appears to have been inevitable. A black swan event is unexpected and therefore difficult to prepare for but is often rationalized with the benefit of hindsight as having been unavoidable.

The black swan (Cygnus atratus) is a large waterbird, a species of swan which breeds mainly in the southeast and southwest regions of Australia. Within Australia, the black swan is nomadic, with erratic migration patterns dependent on climatic conditions.

A black swan event is a single improbable event with enormously far-reaching consequences. In retrospect, people develop explanations for why the event was predictable -- known as...

2024年9月30日 · A black swan is an extremely rare event with potentially severe consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though after the fact, many falsely claim it should have been...

2022年10月5日 · What Is a Black Swan Event? A black swan event is an unpredictable and rare event with an extreme, paradigm-shifting impact on the wider world. Think of the September 11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and other moments of sudden tragedy and panic that echo throughout history.

2022年4月25日 · A "black swan" is a term popularized by Prof. Nassim Taleb and is characterized by high unpredictability, severe consequences, and being explainable in hindsight.